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Expeditions
The Cold Beacon
A signal tower with its beacon unlit and its door swinging. The garrison of three is simply… not here. Their supper is still on the table.
- Entity ID
beacon- Choices offered
- 3
- Safest option
- Light the beacon yourselves — 55% base
- Riskiest option
- Eat their supper and stay the night — 32% base
- Can end the run early
- No
- Energy to mount a ranging
- 25 (three scenes per run)
Every choice, and exactly what it pays
The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.
| Choice | Odds | Base chance | On success | On failure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Light the beacon yourselves | even | 55% | Food +30, Renown +3, Fortune +1 | Renown -2, Fortune -1 |
| Track the garrison | even | 55% | Iron +50, Renown +3, Fortune +1 | Fortune -1 |
| Eat their supper and stay the night | risky | 32% | Food +50 | Food -30, Renown -1, Fortune -1 |
What the chronicle records
Light the beacon yourselves (even, 55%)
Success: The next tower answers, and a grateful serjeant arrives by noon with the missing three — lost chasing a 'ghost' that was a goat. → Food +30, Renown +3, Fortune +1
Failure: You light it during a muster drill. The column that answers is not amused, though the goat is. → Renown -2, Fortune -1
Track the garrison (even, 55%)
Success: You find all three treed by boars, two days hungry and loud with gratitude. Their captain pays the finder's fee without blinking. → Iron +50, Renown +3, Fortune +1
Failure: The trail dies at a stream. You leave a note and the nagging feeling of a story without an ending. → Fortune -1
Eat their supper and stay the night (risky, 32%)
Success: Dry beds, hot stew, and the garrison returns at dawn too embarrassed about the goat to begrudge you any of it. → Food +50
Failure: They return at midnight, weapons first. Explaining takes till morning and costs you the wine you were saving. → Food -30, Renown -1, Fortune -1
Fortune, at this scene
| Choice | Fortune −3 | Fortune −1 | Fortune 0 | Fortune +1 | Fortune +3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Light the beacon yourselves | 43% | 51% | 55% | 59% | 67% |
| Track the garrison | 43% | 51% | 55% | 59% | 67% |
| Eat their supper and stay the night | 20% | 28% | 32% | 36% | 44% |
Related
A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.
Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell
Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.