Home · Database · Expeditions · The Smugglers' Cache

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Expeditions

The Smugglers' Cache

Low tide bares a sea cave, and in it, oilcloth bundles above the waterline. Somebody is coming back for these — the only question is when.

Entity ID
smugglers
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Report it to the harbor lord — 85% base
Riskiest option
Take everything, fast — 32% base
Can end the run early
Yes
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

The Smugglers' Cache: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Take everything, fastrisky32%Food +60, Iron +100, Renown +1, Fortune -1Food +20, Fortune -2, the party turns back
Wait and see who comeseven55%Iron +70, Renown +1Fortune -1
Report it to the harbor lordsafe85%Food +40, Stone +40, Renown +2, Fortune +1Renown +1, Fortune -1

What the chronicle records

Take everything, fast (risky, 32%)

Success: Salt, iron, and a bolt of silk worth more than both. The tide erases every footprint behind you. → Food +60, Iron +100, Renown +1, Fortune -1

Failure: The owners return mid-carry. The negotiation is brief, armed, and one-sided; you keep what was already on the horses. → Food +20, Fortune -2, the party turns back

Wait and see who comes (even, 55%)

Success: Smugglers with a hold full and a schedule tight. They pay well for silence and better for the local charts you sketch. → Iron +70, Renown +1

Failure: The tide comes in early. The cache and your patience both go under. → Fortune -1

Report it to the harbor lord (safe, 85%)

Success: The lord's bounty is honest and prompt, which surprises everyone including his own clerk. → Food +40, Stone +40, Renown +2, Fortune +1

Failure: The harbor lord, it develops, OWNS the cache. He thanks you with great warmth and no bounty. → Renown +1, Fortune -1

Fortune, at this scene

The Smugglers' Cache: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Take everything, fast20%28%32%36%44%
Wait and see who comes43%51%55%59%67%
Report it to the harbor lord73%81%85%89%95%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

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