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Expeditions

The Smugglers' Cache

Low tide bares a sea cave, and in it, oilcloth bundles above the waterline. Somebody is coming back for these — the only question is when.

Entity ID
smugglers
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Report it to the harbor lord — 85% base
Riskiest option
Take everything, fast — 32% base
Can end the run early
Yes
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

The Smugglers' Cache: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Take everything, fastrisky32%Food +60, Iron +100, Renown +1, Fortune -1Food +20, Fortune -2, the party turns back
Wait and see who comeseven55%Iron +70, Renown +1Fortune -1
Report it to the harbor lordsafe85%Food +40, Stone +40, Renown +2, Fortune +1Renown +1, Fortune -1

What the chronicle records

Take everything, fast (risky, 32%)

Success: Salt, iron, and a bolt of silk worth more than both. The tide erases every footprint behind you. → Food +60, Iron +100, Renown +1, Fortune -1

Failure: The owners return mid-carry. The negotiation is brief, armed, and one-sided; you keep what was already on the horses. → Food +20, Fortune -2, the party turns back

Wait and see who comes (even, 55%)

Success: Smugglers with a hold full and a schedule tight. They pay well for silence and better for the local charts you sketch. → Iron +70, Renown +1

Failure: The tide comes in early. The cache and your patience both go under. → Fortune -1

Report it to the harbor lord (safe, 85%)

Success: The lord's bounty is honest and prompt, which surprises everyone including his own clerk. → Food +40, Stone +40, Renown +2, Fortune +1

Failure: The harbor lord, it develops, OWNS the cache. He thanks you with great warmth and no bounty. → Renown +1, Fortune -1

Fortune, at this scene

The Smugglers' Cache: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Take everything, fast20%28%32%36%44%
Wait and see who comes43%51%55%59%67%
Report it to the harbor lord73%81%85%89%95%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

Iron Realms is an original work of fantasy strategy. “Iron Realms” is a working project name, not necessarily the game’s final title. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to any other game or franchise. The game's own lore, names, and artwork are original or used under CC0/CC-BY/OFL licences (see the in-game Credits). The community section also hosts unofficial fan tributes — quizzes and diversions made for fun, not part of the game — which reference other fictional worlds under their own labels; those are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to their respective rights holders. Pre-alpha, and built in public. Nothing is for sale. No purchases are available, no payment is accepted, and no money is taken. Any prices named anywhere on this site describe the intended model only, and the game will not accept payment until it is out of pre-alpha. Iron Realms is an early build under active development: features, balance, prices and the game's holdings and systems are conceptual, and may change, move or disappear between visits. Progress may be reset while the realm is being built. Treat anything you read here as a work in progress rather than a promise.