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Expeditions
The Night Something Fell
A streak of green fire crosses the night, and the thud arrives a breath later, close. The horses hate it. The smiths in your party do not.
- Entity ID
starfall- Choices offered
- 3
- Safest option
- Sell the location to a maester — 85% base
- Riskiest option
- Find it and dig at dawn — 55% base
- Can end the run early
- No
- Energy to mount a ranging
- 25 (three scenes per run)
Every choice, and exactly what it pays
The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.
| Choice | Odds | Base chance | On success | On failure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Find it and dig at dawn | even | 55% | Iron +160, Renown +3 | Fortune -1 |
| Sell the location to a maester | safe | 85% | Food +70, Stone +30, Renown +1, Fortune +1 | nothing gained, nothing lost |
| Calm the horses, break camp early | safe | 85% | Fortune +1 | Fortune -1 |
What the chronicle records
Find it and dig at dawn (even, 55%)
Success: A scorched furrow, a pit, and at the bottom a lump of sky-iron the smiths handle like a relic. Because it is one. → Iron +160, Renown +3
Failure: The furrow ends in a bog that has already swallowed its prize. The bog is not negotiating. → Fortune -1
Sell the location to a maester (safe, 85%)
Success: The nearest maester pays in coin and grain for the bearing, delighted beyond dignity. → Food +70, Stone +30, Renown +1, Fortune +1
Failure: The maester notes your bearing 'matches three other reports' and pays in thanks. Thanks buys no grain. → nothing gained, nothing lost
Calm the horses, break camp early (safe, 85%)
Success: Whatever fell, it fell on somebody else's luck. Your road is quiet and your horses forgive you by noon. → Fortune +1
Failure: All day the party looks backward. Nothing is wrong except the feeling that something might have been wonderful. → Fortune -1
Fortune, at this scene
| Choice | Fortune −3 | Fortune −1 | Fortune 0 | Fortune +1 | Fortune +3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Find it and dig at dawn | 43% | 51% | 55% | 59% | 67% |
| Sell the location to a maester | 73% | 81% | 85% | 89% | 95% |
| Calm the horses, break camp early | 73% | 81% | 85% | 89% | 95% |
Related
A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.
Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't
Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.