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Expeditions

A Watchfire Where None Should Be

A fire on the ridge above the road. Bandits watch roads; so do rangers, and so do frightened farm boys with one spear between them.

Entity ID
watchfire
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Slip past in the dark — 85% base
Riskiest option
Take the camp by surprise — 32% base
Can end the run early
No
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

A Watchfire Where None Should Be: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Hail the fire openlyeven55%Food +40, Renown +2, Fortune +2Fortune -1
Slip past in the darksafe85%nothing gained, nothing lostRenown -1, Fortune -1
Take the camp by surpriserisky32%Iron +90, Renown +3, Fortune -1Food -30, Renown -2, Fortune -2

What the chronicle records

Hail the fire openly (even, 55%)

Success: Rangers. They share the fire, the stew, and word of a rockslide you'd have found the hard way. → Food +40, Renown +2, Fortune +2

Failure: Bandits — but lazy ones. You back away with words and lose only the dark hours. → Fortune -1

Slip past in the dark (safe, 85%)

Success: You pass unseen. Whatever they were, they are somebody else's story now. → nothing gained, nothing lost

Failure: A dropped pot rings like a bell. You outrun the shouting, and your dignity stays on the hillside. → Renown -1, Fortune -1

Take the camp by surprise (risky, 32%)

Success: Deserters with stolen pay. They flee; the strongbox stays. → Iron +90, Renown +3, Fortune -1

Failure: It was rangers. The apology costs you your best wine and a week of jokes at your expense. → Food -30, Renown -2, Fortune -2

Fortune, at this scene

A Watchfire Where None Should Be: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Hail the fire openly43%51%55%59%67%
Slip past in the dark73%81%85%89%95%
Take the camp by surprise20%28%32%36%44%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

Iron Realms is an original work of fantasy strategy. “Iron Realms” is a working project name, not necessarily the game’s final title. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to any other game or franchise. The game's own lore, names, and artwork are original or used under CC0/CC-BY/OFL licences (see the in-game Credits). The community section also hosts unofficial fan tributes — quizzes and diversions made for fun, not part of the game — which reference other fictional worlds under their own labels; those are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to their respective rights holders. Pre-alpha, and built in public. Nothing is for sale. No purchases are available, no payment is accepted, and no money is taken. Any prices named anywhere on this site describe the intended model only, and the game will not accept payment until it is out of pre-alpha. Iron Realms is an early build under active development: features, balance, prices and the game's holdings and systems are conceptual, and may change, move or disappear between visits. Progress may be reset while the realm is being built. Treat anything you read here as a work in progress rather than a promise.