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Expeditions

A Singer with a Broken Lute

A singer sits on a milestone with a lute in two pieces and the look of a man composing a ballad about it. He knows every hall on your road.

Entity ID
singer
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Walk him to the next hall — 85% base
Riskiest option
Mend the lute at camp — 55% base
Can end the run early
No
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

A Singer with a Broken Lute: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Mend the lute at campeven55%Food +20, Renown +3, Fortune +1Renown -1
Walk him to the next hallsafe85%Food +50, Stone +30, Fortune +1Food +10, Fortune -1
Wish him well and keep pacesafe85%nothing gained, nothing lostRenown -2

What the chronicle records

Mend the lute at camp (even, 55%)

Success: Wood glue, wire, and patience. He plays that night like the road owes him money, and names you in the last verse. → Food +20, Renown +3, Fortune +1

Failure: The neck was past saving. He thanks you and invents a villain for the ballad who sounds suspiciously like your quartermaster. → Renown -1

Walk him to the next hall (safe, 85%)

Success: The hall feeds you all for the gift of him. His gossip alone is worth the detour — he knows which lord is buying stone. → Food +50, Stone +30, Fortune +1

Failure: The hall's lord is feuding with the singer over a verse. You dine outside, downwind of the kitchens. → Food +10, Fortune -1

Wish him well and keep pace (safe, 85%)

Success: Miles matter. He waves you off cheerfully and the road stays a road. → nothing gained, nothing lost

Failure: The ballad he writes about the banners that DIDN'T stop is, regrettably, catchy. → Renown -2

Fortune, at this scene

A Singer with a Broken Lute: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Mend the lute at camp43%51%55%59%67%
Walk him to the next hall73%81%85%89%95%
Wish him well and keep pace73%81%85%89%95%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

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