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Expeditions

The Feral Orchard

An orchard gone wild behind a fallen wall — apples heavy on every branch, and paths through the grass that no deer made.

Entity ID
orchard
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Find who tends the paths — 85% base
Riskiest option
Camp and press cider — 32% base
Can end the run early
No
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

The Feral Orchard: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Fill every sackeven55%Food +120Food +40, Fortune -1
Camp and press ciderrisky32%Food +200, Renown +1Food +20, Fortune -2
Find who tends the pathssafe85%Food +80, Wood -10, Renown +2, Fortune +1nothing gained, nothing lost

What the chronicle records

Fill every sack (even, 55%)

Success: Sacks full, casks fuller. Whoever walks these paths didn't walk them today. → Food +120

Failure: The paths belong to bees — a hollow trunk of them. The retreat is fast and undignified, sacks half full. → Food +40, Fortune -1

Camp and press cider (risky, 32%)

Success: Two days, one borrowed press, and cider good enough to trade by the cask. The orchard forgives the trespass. → Food +200, Renown +1

Failure: The press jams, the mash sours, and the smell draws every wasp in the riverlands. You leave with vinegar. → Food +20, Fortune -2

Find who tends the paths (safe, 85%)

Success: A widow with a bad fence and a good heart. Repairs for apples — her rate is generous and her dog approves of you. → Food +80, Wood -10, Renown +2, Fortune +1

Failure: Nobody home but the dog, who is against you on principle. You leave with dignity and no apples. → nothing gained, nothing lost

Fortune, at this scene

The Feral Orchard: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Fill every sack43%51%55%59%67%
Camp and press cider20%28%32%36%44%
Find who tends the paths73%81%85%89%95%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

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