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Expeditions

A Caravan in the Ditch

A merchant's wagon, axle-deep, oxen gone. The merchant offers coin for help — more coin than a stuck wagon should be worth.

Entity ID
caravan
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Haul it out, ask nothing — 85% base
Riskiest option
Ask what's really in the wagon — 55% base
Can end the run early
No
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

A Caravan in the Ditch: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Haul it out, ask nothingsafe85%Food +30, Renown +3, Fortune +1Food +15
Ask what's really in the wagoneven55%Iron +100, Fortune -1Renown -1, Fortune -1
Ride on; ditches keep secretssafe85%nothing gained, nothing lostRenown -2

What the chronicle records

Haul it out, ask nothing (safe, 85%)

Success: It's out by noon. The merchant pays what was promised and remembers your name in three markets. → Food +30, Renown +3, Fortune +1

Failure: The axle was past saving. He pays half for an honest try, which is fair and feels worse. → Food +15

Ask what's really in the wagon (even, 55%)

Success: Raw steel, untaxed. His silence costs him a crate of it; yours is included free. → Iron +100, Fortune -1

Failure: He answers loudly — turnips — and a passing patrol takes an interest in YOUR papers instead. → Renown -1, Fortune -1

Ride on; ditches keep secrets (safe, 85%)

Success: Not your wagon, not your winter. The road stays quiet. → nothing gained, nothing lost

Failure: The story beats you home: your banners left a man in a ditch. Not the verse you'd have chosen. → Renown -2

Fortune, at this scene

A Caravan in the Ditch: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Haul it out, ask nothing73%81%85%89%95%
Ask what's really in the wagon43%51%55%59%67%
Ride on; ditches keep secrets73%81%85%89%95%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

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