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Expeditions
A Caravan in the Ditch
A merchant's wagon, axle-deep, oxen gone. The merchant offers coin for help — more coin than a stuck wagon should be worth.
- Entity ID
caravan- Choices offered
- 3
- Safest option
- Haul it out, ask nothing — 85% base
- Riskiest option
- Ask what's really in the wagon — 55% base
- Can end the run early
- No
- Energy to mount a ranging
- 25 (three scenes per run)
Every choice, and exactly what it pays
The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.
| Choice | Odds | Base chance | On success | On failure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haul it out, ask nothing | safe | 85% | Food +30, Renown +3, Fortune +1 | Food +15 |
| Ask what's really in the wagon | even | 55% | Iron +100, Fortune -1 | Renown -1, Fortune -1 |
| Ride on; ditches keep secrets | safe | 85% | nothing gained, nothing lost | Renown -2 |
What the chronicle records
Haul it out, ask nothing (safe, 85%)
Success: It's out by noon. The merchant pays what was promised and remembers your name in three markets. → Food +30, Renown +3, Fortune +1
Failure: The axle was past saving. He pays half for an honest try, which is fair and feels worse. → Food +15
Ask what's really in the wagon (even, 55%)
Success: Raw steel, untaxed. His silence costs him a crate of it; yours is included free. → Iron +100, Fortune -1
Failure: He answers loudly — turnips — and a passing patrol takes an interest in YOUR papers instead. → Renown -1, Fortune -1
Ride on; ditches keep secrets (safe, 85%)
Success: Not your wagon, not your winter. The road stays quiet. → nothing gained, nothing lost
Failure: The story beats you home: your banners left a man in a ditch. Not the verse you'd have chosen. → Renown -2
Fortune, at this scene
| Choice | Fortune −3 | Fortune −1 | Fortune 0 | Fortune +1 | Fortune +3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haul it out, ask nothing | 73% | 81% | 85% | 89% | 95% |
| Ask what's really in the wagon | 43% | 51% | 55% | 59% | 67% |
| Ride on; ditches keep secrets | 73% | 81% | 85% | 89% | 95% |
Related
A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.
Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell
Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.