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Expeditions

The Mist That Doesn't Lift

By midmorning the mist should have burned off. It hasn't. Sound carries wrong in it, and the road you know feels like a road you don't.

Entity ID
mist
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Halt and wait it out — 85% base
Riskiest option
Follow the bell you keep almost hearing — 32% base
Can end the run early
No
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

The Mist That Doesn't Lift: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Halt and wait it outsafe85%Food -20, Fortune +2Food -30
Walk on, roped togethereven55%Renown +2, Fortune +1Fortune -1
Follow the bell you keep almost hearingrisky32%Food +90, Renown +1Fortune -2

What the chronicle records

Halt and wait it out (safe, 85%)

Success: It lifts by dusk. The delay costs supper and buys you the sight of the washed-out road you'd have taken at speed. → Food -20, Fortune +2

Failure: It sits for a day. Nothing worse than boredom finds you, but nothing better either. → Food -30

Walk on, roped together (even, 55%)

Success: Slow, blind, and correct. You come out the far side with a story that will be a haunting by the third telling. → Renown +2, Fortune +1

Failure: A cart wheel finds the ditch by feel. Nothing breaks except the schedule. → Fortune -1

Follow the bell you keep almost hearing (risky, 32%)

Success: A shepherd's chapel, a real bell, and a monk who trades smoked fish for news of the road behind you. → Food +90, Renown +1

Failure: There is no bell. There never was a bell. You stop saying the word 'bell' by unspoken agreement and camp where you stand. → Fortune -2

Fortune, at this scene

The Mist That Doesn't Lift: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Halt and wait it out73%81%85%89%95%
Walk on, roped together43%51%55%59%67%
Follow the bell you keep almost hearing20%28%32%36%44%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

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